As the likelihood of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine increases over time—especially following a U.S.-brokered truce in Riyadh concerning the Black Sea, which establishes mechanisms to ban targeting energy infrastructure—a question arises as to whether the end of the three-year war will reduce the momentum of wealthy Russians in Dubai’s real estate market.
Bloomberg Economics addressed this topic in a report by Ziad Daoud and Alex Isakov, which initially noted that estimates suggesting between 100,000 to 700,000 Russians have moved to live in Dubai since the war began are “greatly exaggerated,” thereby downplaying the potential impact of Russians leaving the emirate on the real estate market. Meanwhile, Dubai continues to attract a wide range of nationalities, amid strong demand from foreign buyers, which helps maintain market momentum, according to the report.
Dubai’s real estate market has experienced sharp fluctuations over the past decade. However, the current boom is long-lasting, driven by the government’s swift response to the pandemic and flexible visa programs. Luxury villas on the Palm Islands and waterfronts have attracted special attention from wealthy investors, including Russians looking to protect their wealth, cryptocurrency millionaires, and bankers who left Asia.
How many Russians are actually in Dubai?
It is unlikely that half a million Russians have arrived in Dubai, as this figure nearly equals the total number of people displaced from Russia since the war began—estimated at between 500,000 and 650,000. Moreover, Dubai’s population has only increased by 400,000 since 2020, making such a number implausible. Even 100,000 Russians is considered a high estimate; Georgia alone received that many, as it was the top destination for Russian emigrants in 2022 and 2023. The UAE is not even among the top ten destinations for Russian migration, which includes countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Turkey, according to the Bloomberg Economics report.
Population data indicates that Dubai’s population grew by 180,000 people between 2021 and 2023, including around 30,000 annual births—leaving approximately 120,000 new arrivals, not all of whom are Russian.
The more realistic figure, according to Bloomberg Economics calculations, suggests that only 25,000 Russians have moved to Dubai. Surveys show that only 2% of Russian emigrants chose the UAE, and even if that percentage doubled to 5%, and all of them settled in Dubai, the number would still be around 25,000.
This aligns with the latest assessment by S&P Global, which ruled out a significant impact on the UAE’s real estate sector from the end of the war—even if Russians began selling off properties—due to continued strong demand and population growth.
Russian Tourism… The Misleading Factor
So why does it seem like more Russians have moved? The main reason, according to the Bloomberg Economics report, is tourism. Around 2 million Russians visited the UAE in 2024, averaging roughly 160,000 per month—a figure close to migration estimates.
Additionally, high-profile property purchases and the sudden surge in prices following the outbreak of the war contributed to the false impression that Russians were settling permanently, while in reality, the majority were just visitors.
